Brexit: Is it Worth the Price?

London could stage 14 Olympic Games for the cost of Brexit to the public finances

Brexit is going to cost the British people at least 58 billion pounds, says Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. Taking figures provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility, Hammond also announced that government borrowing will have to rise as a result of Brexit, by 64 billion pounds.

The final figure, when all is done and dusted, is likely to be very different, however. Given that experts tend to err on the side of caution with their projections, the real cost will probably be higher than the 122 billion pounds calculated thus far.

It’s difficult to comprehend, or imagine, the meaning of huge numbers such as these. Looking at those figures, is Brexit going to be an expense too far, or is it cheap as chips and worth the gamble? 58.7 billion sounds like a lot of money, but, given what Britain spends on infrastructure or public services, or on the EU, is it really?

During the Brexit referendum campaign we heard from the Leave side what they thought the EU cost Britain and how much we as a country might benefit from leaving. They said Britain could benefit to the tune of 350 million pounds a week, and suggested we should spend that money on the NHS – a worthy goal indeed. However, they abandoned that idea shortly after the referendum result was known.

To their discredit, the Remain side didn’t come up with a convincing counter to Leave’s very persuasive meme. All Remain did was argue over how much EU membership really costs. But, looking only at the figures themselves, who can really understand the difference between 16 or 10 billion, for example? So the Remain argument got lost in picky arguments over the details, and they appeared pedantic, negative, and boring. Leave were able to capture the high ground by making the more positive general point.

So, just as Leave were able to make the money we spend on EU membership 'real',and to introduce a bit of balance, I'm going to visualise what Brexit is going to cost the British people with this handy little guide. The figures below are calculated simply by dividing 122 billion by the actual cost of various public ‘goods’, and rounding up or down as appropriate to the nearest sensible number. It’s a fun method of understanding the cost of Brexit more clearly, and a slightly serious contribution to rebalancing the continuing argument over whether, or how, the UK should remain a partner in the European Union.

What could Britain get for the cost of Brexit to the public finances?

So, do you still think Brexit is worth the price?