Supplementary Materials - Coming to a city near you!
Matanle, P. and Sato, Y. (2011) Coming Soon to a City Near You! Learning to Live 'Beyond Growth' in Japan's Shrinking Regions, Social Science Japan Journal, 13 (2): 187-210.
This article analyses rural depopulation in Japan and its implications by means of a case study of Niigata Prefecture and Sado Island. In the first part of the article we present population maps to show that rural demographic shrinkage is both deepening as well as broadening to include urban centres. We focus initially on Niigata Prefecture in the national context and then discuss migratory patterns in Sado. The data show that Sado, and now Niigata Prefecture as a whole, have entered what we call a 'double negative population disequilibrium', whereby both the migratory and natural reproduction population contributions have turned negative. Recent evidence also indicates that Niigata City itself may also have begun to shrink. In the second part we discuss the implications of depopulation for Sado Island via extracts from qualitative interviews gathered from local residents. We found that many residents now accept the inevitability of continued shrinkage and, rather than seeking to re-establish growth, many institutional and social and environmental entrepreneurs are instead working towards achieving community stability and sustainability. We conclude by suggesting that the example of Japan's rural communities presents Japan's regional cities with the occasion to consider life 'beyond growth', as their populations also begin to shrink in the years to come.
Below are two sets of population maps for Japan and Niigata Prefecture for the period 1950-2030 and a set of photographs from Sado Island depicting some of the impacts of depopulation there. These are supplementary materials for the article 'Coming to a City Near You! Learning to Live Beyond Growth in Japan's Shrinking Regions', published in Social Science Japan Journal in 2011.
All data through to and including 2005 was derived from the Japanese national census. Municipal level maps for Niigata Prefecture backdate from 2005 to 1950 to include municipal boundary changes. Data from 2010 to 2030 was taken from the National Institute for Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR) 2002 prefectural and 2003 municipal data projections, which are based on the 2000 census. Although projections based on the more recent 2005 census are available on the NIPSSR website we use the earlier data because it is approximately 5 per cent less pessimistic. Please refer to the article itself for more detail on methodology.
Maps were created using ArcGIS, Corel Photopaint, MSPowerpoint 2007, and Arclab Watermark Studio software. All maps are copyright protected. If you wish to display any of these maps then please send me an email and ask for permission, and then I can send you a clean set.
Pleae find belw the following materials:
Maps 1-5: Improved colour versions of the maps that appear in the article itself.
Maps 6-13: Colour maps describing Japan's postwar population change (actual and projected): from expansion (1950-70), through consolidation (1970-90) and stagnation (1990-2010), to shrinkage (2010-2030).
Supplementary Photos: These are colour photos of aspects of shrinkage in Sado Island.
Population Maps 1-5
The following five maps are improved colour versions of the maps provided in the article itself.
Click on each map for an expanded view.
Population Maps 6-13
The following eight maps show population change (actual and projected) for Japan (by prefecture and prefectural capital) and Niigata Prefecture (by municipality - 2000 boundaries) over four twenty year periods: 1950-70, 1970-90, 1990-2010, and 2010-30. The maps present a narrative for Japan's postwar history in terms of its population change as well as, perhaps, its economic fortunes; showing a progression from expansion, through consolidation and stagnation, to shrinkage.
Click on each map for an expanded view.
The following photos present some scenes from Sado Island and provide visual support for the text of the article. As above with the maps, if you wish to use any of these photos, then please get in contact and let me know for what purpose. If it is teaching and research then it is not usually a problem, but they are not normally to be used for onward commercial use.
Click on each image for an expanded view.